Average rank of elliptic curves

We prove a theorem giving the asymptotic number of binary quartic forms having bounded invariants; this extends, to the quartic case, the classical results of Gauss and Davenport in the quadratic and cubic cases, respectively. Our techniques are quite general, and may be applied to counting integral orbits in other representations of algebraic groups. We use these counting results to prove that the average rank of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, when ordered by their hei...

In this article, we prove that the average rank of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, when ordered by height, is less than $1$ (in fact, less than $.885$). As a consequence of our methods, we also prove that at least four fifths of all elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank either 0 or 1; furthermore, at least one fifth of all elliptic curves in fact have rank 0. The primary ingredient in the proofs of these theorems is a determination of the average size of the $5$-Selm...

This is an introduction to a probabilistic model for the arithmetic of elliptic curves, a model developed in a series of articles of the author with Bhargava, Kane, Lenstra, Park, Rains, Voight, and Wood. We discuss the theoretical evidence for the model, and we make predictions about elliptic curves based on corresponding theorems proved about the model. In particular, the model suggests that all but finitely many elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank $\le 21$, which w...

All the results in this paper are conditional on the Riemann Hypothesis for the L-functions of elliptic curves. Under this assumption, we show that the average analytic rank of all elliptic curves over Q is at most 2, thereby improving a result of Brumer. We also show that the average within any family of quadratic twists is at most 3/2, improving a result of Goldfeld. A third result concerns the density of curves with analytic rank at least R, and shows that the proportion o...

We show, in the large $q$ limit, that the average size of $n$-Selmer groups of elliptic curves of bounded height over $\mathbb F_q(t)$ is the sum of the divisors of $n$. As a corollary, again in the large $q$ limit, we deduce that $100\%$ of elliptic curves of bounded height over $\mathbb F_q(t)$ have rank $0$ or $1$.

Most systematic tables of data associated to ranks of elliptic curves order the curves by conductor. Recent developments, led by work of Bhargava-Shankar studying the average sizes of $n$-Selmer groups, have given new upper bounds on the average algebraic rank in families of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height. We describe databases of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height in which we compute ranks and $2$-Selmer group sizes, the distributions of...

We prove an asymptotic formula for the number of ${\rm SL}_3({\mathbb Z})$-equivalence classes of integral ternary cubic forms having bounded invariants. We use this result to show that the average size of the 3-Selmer group of all elliptic curves, when ordered by height, is 4. This implies that the average rank of all elliptic curves, when ordered by height, is less than 1.17. Combining our counting techniques with a recent result of Dokchitser and Dokchitser, we prove tha...

We give a conditional bound for the average analytic rank of elliptic curves over an arbitrary number field. In particular, under the assumptions that all elliptic curves over a number field $K$ are modular and have $L$-functions which satisfy the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis, we show that the average analytic rank of isomorphism classes of elliptic curves over $K$ is bounded above by $3\text{deg}(K)+1/2$. A key ingredient in the proof of this result is to give asymptotics ...

Let K be a multiquadratic number field. We investigate the average dimension of 2-Selmer groups over K for the family of all elliptic curves over the rational numbers (ordered by height). We give upper and lower bounds for this average. In the special case of quadratic fields, these bounds are arbitrarily close for a positive proportion of K. Our bounds are achieved by studying the genus theory invariant for 2-Selmer groups over such fields, whose average we similarly bound a...

In this article, we propose a new probabilistic model for the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves in families of fixed Selmer rank, and compare the predictions with previous results, and with the databases of curves over the rationals that we have at our disposal. In addition, we document a phenomenon we refer to as Selmer bias that seems to play an important role in the data and in our models.