Efficient Markets, Behavioral Finance and a Statistical Evidence of the Validity of Technical Analysis

Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. Their profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousands traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) from May 21, 1992 through June 30, 2013 and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index (SHSZ 300) from April 8, 2005 through June 30, 2013 to check whethe...

This paper offers a general and comprehensive definition of the day-of-the-week effect. Using symbolic dynamics, we develop a unique test based on ordinal patterns in order to detect it. This test uncovers the fact that the so-called "day-of-the-week" effect is partly an artifact of the hidden correlation structure of the data. We present simulations based on artificial time series as well. Whereas time series generated with long memory are prone to exhibit daily seasonality,...

The paper tackles the problem of deriving a topological structure among stock prices from high frequency historical values. Similar studies using low frequency data have already provided valuable insights. However, in those cases data need to be collected for a longer period and then they have to be detrended. An effective technique based on averaging a metric function on short subperiods of the observation horizon is suggested. Since a standard correlation-based metric is no...

This paper will analyze and implement a time series dynamic neural network to predict daily closing stock prices. Neural networks possess unsurpassed abilities in identifying underlying patterns in chaotic, non-linear, and seemingly random data, thus providing a mechanism to predict stock price movements much more precisely than many current techniques. Contemporary methods for stock analysis, including fundamental, technical, and regression techniques, are conversed and para...

This paper presents a novel adaptive-filter approach for predicting assets on the stock markets. Concepts are introduced here, which allow understanding this method and computing of the corresponding forecast. This approach is applied, as an example, through the prediction over the actual valuation of the PETR3 shares (Petrobras ON) traded in the Brazilian Stock Market. The first-rate choices of the window length and the number of filter coefficient are evaluated. This is don...

Recently the interest of researchers has shifted from the analysis of synchronous relationships of financial instruments to the analysis of more meaningful asynchronous relationships. Both of those analyses are concentrated only on Pearson's correlation coefficient and thus intraday lead-lag relationships associated with such. Under Efficient Market Hypothesis such relationships are not possible as all information is embedded in the prices. In this paper we analyse lead-lag r...

We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this benchmark model is unable to reproduce the diffusion properties of real prices. Specifically, we find that for one hour intervals this model consistently over-predicts the volatility of real price series by about 70%, and that this effect ...

In this letter we investigate the information provided by the "compass rose" (Crack, T.F. and Ledoit, O. (1996), Journal of Finance, 51(2), pg. 751-762) patterns revealed in phase portraits of daily stock returns. It has been initially suggested that the compass rose is just a manifestation of price clustering and discreteness and the tick size, factors that can affect the unbiasedness of an array of statistical tests based on stock returns. We show that this may not entirely...

We respond to Sornette and Johansen's criticisms of our findings regarding log-periodic precursors to financial crashes. Included in this paper are discussions of the Sornette-Johansen theoretical paradigm, traditional methods of identifying log-periodic precursors, the behavior of the first differences of a log-periodic price series, and the distribution of drawdowns for a securities price.

A property of data which is common across a wide range of instruments, markets and time periods is known as stylized empirical fact in the financial statistics literature. This paper first presents a wide range of stylized facts studied in literature which include some univariate distributional properties, multivariate properties and time series related properties of the financial time series data. In the next part of the paper, price data from several stocks listed on 10 sto...