The average size of the 5-Selmer group of elliptic curves is 6, and the average rank is less than 1

We show, in the large $q$ limit, that the average size of $n$-Selmer groups of elliptic curves of bounded height over $\mathbb F_q(t)$ is the sum of the divisors of $n$. As a corollary, again in the large $q$ limit, we deduce that $100\%$ of elliptic curves of bounded height over $\mathbb F_q(t)$ have rank $0$ or $1$.

Bhargava and Shankar prove that as E varies over all elliptic curves over Q, the average rank of the finitely generated abelian group E(Q) is bounded. This result follows from an exact formula for the average size of the 2-Selmer group, which in turn follows from an asymptotic formula for the number of binary quartic forms over Z with bounded invariants. We explain their proof, as well as other arithmetic applications.

In this article, we propose a new probabilistic model for the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves in families of fixed Selmer rank, and compare the predictions with previous results, and with the databases of curves over the rationals that we have at our disposal. In addition, we document a phenomenon we refer to as Selmer bias that seems to play an important role in the data and in our models.

Most systematic tables of data associated to ranks of elliptic curves order the curves by conductor. Recent developments, led by work of Bhargava-Shankar studying the average sizes of $n$-Selmer groups, have given new upper bounds on the average algebraic rank in families of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height. We describe databases of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height in which we compute ranks and $2$-Selmer group sizes, the distributions of...

We prove that when all elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ are ordered by height, the average size of their 4-Selmer groups is equal to 7. As a consequence, we show that a positive proportion (in fact, at least one fifth) of all 2-Selmer elements of elliptic curves, when ordered by height, do not lift to 4-Selmer elements, and thus correspond to nontrivial 2-torsion elements in the associated Tate--Shafarevich groups.

We prove that, when elliptic curves $E/\mathbb{Q}$ are ordered by height, the average number of integral points $\#|E(\mathbb{Z})|$ is bounded, and in fact is less than $66$ (and at most $\frac{8}{9}$ on the minimalist conjecture). By "$E(\mathbb{Z})$" we mean the integral points on the corresponding quasiminimal Weierstrass model $E_{A,B}: y^2 = x^3 + Ax + B$ with which one computes the na\"{\i}ve height. The methods combine ideas from work of Silverman, Helfgott, and Helfgo...

This is an introduction to a probabilistic model for the arithmetic of elliptic curves, a model developed in a series of articles of the author with Bhargava, Kane, Lenstra, Park, Rains, Voight, and Wood. We discuss the theoretical evidence for the model, and we make predictions about elliptic curves based on corresponding theorems proved about the model. In particular, the model suggests that all but finitely many elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank $\le 21$, which w...

For a finite Galois extension K/F of number fields, elliptic curve E/Q and prime number p, we study the difference in dimension between the Galois fixed space in the p-Selmer group of E/K and the p-Selmer group of E/F. We show that this difference has bounded average when all E/Q are ordered by height. We also show that if F is Q or a multiquadratic number field, p is at most 5, and K/F is a Galois extension of degree a power of p, then for elliptic curves E/Q ordered by he...

Given a prime $p\geq 5$, a conjecture of Greenberg predicts that the $\mu$-invariant of the $p$-primary Selmer group should vanish for most elliptic curves with good ordinary reduction at $p$. In support of this conjecture, I show that the $5$-primary Iwasawa $\mu$- and $\lambda$-invariants simultaneously vanish for an explicit positive density of elliptic curves $E_{/\mathbb{Q}}$. The elliptic curves in question have good ordinary reduction at $5$, and are ordered by their h...

In [5], Manjul Bhargava and Benedict Gross considered the family of hyperelliptic curves over $\Q$ having a fixed genus and a marked rational Weierstrass point. They showed that the average size of the 2-Selmer group of the Jacobians of these curves, when ordered by height, is 3. In this paper, we consider the family of hyperelliptic curves over $\Q$ having a fixed genus and a marked rational non-Weierstrass point. We show that when these curves are ordered by height, the ave...