A positive proportion of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank one

In this article, we prove that the average rank of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, when ordered by height, is less than $1$ (in fact, less than $.885$). As a consequence of our methods, we also prove that at least four fifths of all elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank either 0 or 1; furthermore, at least one fifth of all elliptic curves in fact have rank 0. The primary ingredient in the proofs of these theorems is a determination of the average size of the $5$-Selm...

All the results in this paper are conditional on the Riemann Hypothesis for the L-functions of elliptic curves. Under this assumption, we show that the average analytic rank of all elliptic curves over Q is at most 2, thereby improving a result of Brumer. We also show that the average within any family of quadratic twists is at most 3/2, improving a result of Goldfeld. A third result concerns the density of curves with analytic rank at least R, and shows that the proportion o...

We prove that a majority (in fact, $>66\%$) of all elliptic curves over $\mathbb Q$, when ordered by height, satisfy the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer rank conjecture.

This is an introduction to a probabilistic model for the arithmetic of elliptic curves, a model developed in a series of articles of the author with Bhargava, Kane, Lenstra, Park, Rains, Voight, and Wood. We discuss the theoretical evidence for the model, and we make predictions about elliptic curves based on corresponding theorems proved about the model. In particular, the model suggests that all but finitely many elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank $\le 21$, which w...

Given a family of quadratic twists of a fixed elliptic curve defined over $\mathbb{Q}$, we investigate the average rank in the subfamily of twists having a nontorsion rational point of almost minimal height. We show in particular that the average analytic rank is greater than one.

In this article, we propose a new probabilistic model for the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves in families of fixed Selmer rank, and compare the predictions with previous results, and with the databases of curves over the rationals that we have at our disposal. In addition, we document a phenomenon we refer to as Selmer bias that seems to play an important role in the data and in our models.

We give a conditional bound for the average analytic rank of elliptic curves over an arbitrary number field. In particular, under the assumptions that all elliptic curves over a number field $K$ are modular and have $L$-functions which satisfy the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis, we show that the average analytic rank of isomorphism classes of elliptic curves over $K$ is bounded above by $3\text{deg}(K)+1/2$. A key ingredient in the proof of this result is to give asymptotics ...

In this paper, under GRH for elliptic $L$-functions, we give an upper bound for the probability for an elliptic curve with analytic rank $\leq a$ for $a \geq 11$, and also give an upper bound of $n$-th moments of analytic ranks of elliptic curves. These are applications of counting elliptic curves with local conditions, for example, having good reduction at $p$.

We investigate the average rank in the family of quadratic twists of a given elliptic curve defined over $\mathbb{Q}$, when the curves are ordered using the canonical height of their lowest non-torsion rational point.

We adopt a statistical point of view on the conjecture of Lang which predicts a lower bound for the canonical height of non-torsion rational points on elliptic curves defined over $\mathbb{Q}$. More specifically, we prove that among the family of all elliptic curves defined over $\mathbb{Q}$ and having positive rank, there is a density one subfamily of curves which satisfy a strong form of Lang's conjecture.