Estimating topological properties of weighted networks from limited information

We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information that can be accessed and, as a consequence, the possibility of correctly estimating the resilience of these systems to events such as financial shocks, crises and cascade failures. Here we present an innovative method to reconstruct the stru...

A major problem in the study of complex socioeconomic systems is represented by privacy issues$-$that can put severe limitations on the amount of accessible information, forcing to build models on the basis of incomplete knowledge. In this paper we investigate a novel method to reconstruct global topological properties of a complex network starting from limited information. This method uses the knowledge of an intrinsic property of the nodes (indicated as fitness), and the nu...

Network topology plays a key role in many phenomena, from the spreading of diseases to that of financial crises. Whenever the whole structure of a network is unknown, one must resort to reconstruction methods that identify the least biased ensemble of networks consistent with the partial information available. A challenging case, frequently encountered due to privacy issues in the analysis of interbank flows and Big Data, is when there is only local (node-specific) aggregate ...

When studying social, economic and biological systems, one has often access to only limited information about the structure of the underlying networks. An example of paramount importance is provided by financial systems: information on the interconnections between financial institutions is privacy-protected, dramatically reducing the possibility of correctly estimating crucial systemic properties such as the resilience to the propagation of shocks. The need to compensate for ...

Reconstructing weighted networks from partial information is necessary in many important circumstances, e.g. for a correct estimation of systemic risk. It has been shown that, in order to achieve an accurate reconstruction, it is crucial to reliably replicate the empirical degree sequence, which is however unknown in many realistic situations. More recently, it has been found that the knowledge of the degree sequence can be replaced by the knowledge of the strength sequence, ...

We present a novel method to reconstruct complex network from partial information. We assume to know the links only for a subset of the nodes and to know some non-topological quantity (fitness) characterising every node. The missing links are generated on the basis of the latter quan- tity according to a fitness model calibrated on the subset of nodes for which links are known. We measure the quality of the reconstruction of several topological properties, such as the network...

Due to the interconnectedness of financial entities, estimating certain key properties of a complex financial system (e.g. the implied level of systemic risk) requires detailed information about the structure of the underlying network. However, since data about financial linkages are typically subject to confidentiality, network reconstruction techniques become necessary to infer both the presence of connections and their intensity. Recently, several "horse races" have been c...

Most empirical studies of networks assume that the network data we are given represent a complete and accurate picture of the nodes and edges in the system of interest, but in real-world situations this is rarely the case. More often the data only specify the network structure imperfectly -- like data in essentially every other area of empirical science, network data are prone to measurement error and noise. At the same time, the data may be richer than simple network measure...

Complex networks grow subject to structural constraints which affect their measurable properties. Assessing the effect that such constraints impose on their observables is thus a crucial aspect to be taken into account in their analysis. To this end,we examine the effect of fixing the strength sequence in multi-edge networks on several network observables such as degrees, disparity, average neighbor properties and weight distribution using an ensemble approach. We provide a g...

In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as Maximum Entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing ...