Optimal growth trajectories with finite carrying capacity

The study of density-dependent stochastic population processes is important from a historical perspective as well as from the perspective of a number of existing and emerging applications today. In more recent applications of these processes, it can be especially important to include time-varying parameters for the rates that impact the density-dependent population structures and behaviors. Under a mean-field scaling, we show that such density-dependent stochastic population ...

In this paper we consider stochastic optimization problems for an ambiguity averse decision maker who is uncertain about the parameters of the underlying process. In a first part we consider problems of optimal stopping under drift ambiguity for one-dimensional diffusion processes. Analogously to the case of ordinary optimal stopping problems for one-dimensional Brownian motions we reduce the problem to the geometric problem of finding the smallest majorant of the reward func...

This paper studies a mean-risk portfolio choice problem for log-returns in a continuous-time, complete market. This is a growth-optimal problem with risk control. The risk of log-returns is measured by weighted Value-at-Risk (WVaR), which is a generalization of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). We characterize the optimal terminal wealth up to the concave envelope of a certain function, and obtain analytical expressions for the optimal wealth and portfolio poli...

The conservative wealth-exchange process derived from trade interactions is modeled as a multiplicative stochastic transference of value, where each interaction multiplies the wealth of the poorest of the two intervening agents by a random gain eta=(1+kappa), with kappa a random return. Analyzing the kinetic equation for the wealth distribution P(w,t), general properties are derived for arbitrary return distributions pi(kappa). If the geometrical average of the gain is larger...

We consider a real options model for the optimal irreversible investment problem of a profit maximizing company. The company has the opportunity to invest into a production plant capable of producing two products, of which the prices follow two independent geometric Brownian motions. After paying a constant sunk investment cost, the company sells the products on the market and thus receives a continuous stochastic revenue-flow. This investment problem is set as a two-dimensio...

The paper presents a phenomenon occurring in population processes that start near zero and have large carrying capacity. By the classical result of Kurtz~(1970), such processes, normalized by the carrying capacity, converge on finite intervals to the solutions of ordinary differential equations, also known as the fluid limit. When the initial population is small relative to carrying capacity, this limit is trivial. Here we show that, viewed at suitably chosen times increasing...

We study the problem of optimizing the betting frequency in a dynamic game setting using Kelly's celebrated expected logarithmic growth criterion as the performance metric. The game is defined by a sequence of bets with independent and identically distributed returns X(k). The bettor selects the fraction of wealth K wagered at k = 0 and waits n steps before updating the bet size. Between updates, the proceeds from the previous bets remain at risk in the spirit of "buy and hol...

In this paper, we consider a simple discrete-time optimal betting problem using the celebrated Kelly criterion, which calls for maximization of the expected logarithmic growth of wealth. While the classical Kelly betting problem can be solved via standard concave programming technique, an alternative but attractive approach is to invoke a Taylor-based approximation, which recasts the problem into quadratic programming and obtain the closed-form approximate solution. The focal...

In this article, we consider diffusion approximations for a general class of stochastic recursions. Such recursions arise as models for population growth, genetics, financial securities, multiplicative time series, numerical schemes and MCMC algorithms. We make no particular probabilistic assumptions on the type of noise appearing in these recursions. Thus, our technique is well suited to recursions where the noise sequence is not a semi-martingale, even though the limiting n...

This paper studies an optimal investing problem for a retiree facing longevity risk and living standard risk. We formulate the investing problem as a portfolio choice problem under a time-varying risk capacity constraint. We derive the optimal investment strategy under the specific condition on model parameters in terms of second-order ordinary differential equations. We demonstrate an endogenous number that measures the expected value to sustain the spending post-retirement....