A Simple Combinatorial Model of World Economic History

A fundamental problem in technological studies is how to measure the evolution of technology. The literature has suggested several approaches to measuring the level of technology (or state-of-the-art) and changes in technology. However, the measurement of technological advances and technological evolution is often a complex and elusive topic in science. The study here starts by establishing a conceptual framework of technological evolution based on the theory of technological...

We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against already existing goods, in other words new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism existing goods may be driven out from the market - often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian g...

The quest for historically impactful science and technology provides invaluable insight into the innovation dynamics of human society, yet many studies are limited to qualitative and small-scale approaches. Here, we investigate scientific evolution through systematic analysis of a massive corpus of digitized English texts between 1800 and 2008. Our analysis reveals great predictability for long-prevailing scientific concepts based on the levels of their prior usage. Interesti...

Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities. In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products....

Major theories of military innovation focus on relatively narrow technological developments, such as nuclear weapons or aircraft carriers. Arguably the most profound military implications of technological change, however, come from more fundamental advances arising from general purpose technologies, such as the steam engine, electricity, and the computer. With few exceptions, political scientists have not theorized about GPTs. Drawing from the economics literature on GPTs, we...

Economic growth is often associated with diversification of economic activities. Making a product in a country is dependent on having, and acquiring, the capabilities needed to make the product, making the process path-dependent. We derive a probabilistic model to describe the directed dynamic process of capability accumulation and product diversification of countries. Using international trade data, the model enables us to empirically identify the set of pre-existing product...

One new thing often leads to another. Such correlated novelties are a familiar part of daily life. They are also thought to be fundamental to the evolution of biological systems, human society, and technology. By opening new possibilities, one novelty can pave the way for others in a process that Kauffman has called "expanding the adjacent possible". The dynamics of correlated novelties, however, have yet to be quantified empirically or modeled mathematically. Here we propose...

International trade fluxes evolve as countries revise their portfolios of trade products towards economic development. Accordingly products' shares in international trade vary with time, reflecting the transfer of capital between distinct industrial sectors. Here we analyze the share of hundreds of product categories in world trade for four decades and find a scaling law obeyed by the annual variation of product share, which informs us of how capital flows and interacts over ...

We study a simple model for the evolution of the cost (or more generally the performance) of a technology or production process. The technology can be decomposed into $n$ components, each of which interacts with a cluster of $d-1$ other, dependent components. Innovation occurs through a series of trial-and-error events, each of which consists of randomly changing the cost of each component in a cluster, and accepting the changes only if the total cost of the entire cluster is...

Is a causal description of human wealth history conceivable? To investigate the matter we introduce a simple causal albeit strongly aggregated model, assuming that the observed wealth growth is mainly driven by human collaborative efforts whose intensity itself increases with increasing wealth. As an empirical reference we use time series describing eight centuries of per capita annual gross domestic products (GDP) of three European countries, the UK, France and Sweden. The m...