Semi-analytic approximate stability selection for correlated data in generalized linear models

Resampling techniques are widely used in statistical inference and ensemble learning, in which estimators' statistical properties are essential. However, existing methods are computationally demanding, because repetitions of estimation/learning via numerical optimization/integral for each resampled data are required. In this study, we introduce a computationally efficient method to resolve such problem: replicated vector approximate message passing. This is based on a combina...

Vector approximate message passing (VAMP) is an efficient approximate inference algorithm used for generalized linear models. Although VAMP exhibits excellent performance, particularly when measurement matrices are sampled from rotationally invariant ensembles, existing convergence and performance analyses have been limited mostly to cases in which the correct posterior distribution is available. Here, we extend the analyses for cases in which the correct posterior distributi...

An approximate method for conducting resampling in Lasso, the $\ell_1$ penalized linear regression, in a semi-analytic manner is developed, whereby the average over the resampled datasets is directly computed without repeated numerical sampling, thus enabling an inference free of the statistical fluctuations due to sampling finiteness, as well as a significant reduction of computational time. The proposed method is based on a message passing type algorithm, and its fast conve...

We discuss the prediction accuracy of assumed statistical models in terms of prediction errors for the generalized linear model and penalized maximum likelihood methods. We derive the forms of estimators for the prediction errors, such as $C_p$ criterion, information criteria, and leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) error, using the generalized approximate message passing (GAMP) algorithm and replica method. These estimators coincide with each other when the number of mode...

Nearly all statistical inference methods were developed for the regime where the number $N$ of data samples is much larger than the data dimension $p$. Inference protocols such as maximum likelihood (ML) or maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) are unreliable if $p=O(N)$, due to overfitting. This limitation has for many disciplines with increasingly high-dimensional data become a serious bottleneck. We recently showed that in Cox regression for time-to-event data the overfit...

Estimation of structure, such as in variable selection, graphical modelling or cluster analysis is notoriously difficult, especially for high-dimensional data. We introduce stability selection. It is based on subsampling in combination with (high-dimensional) selection algorithms. As such, the method is extremely general and has a very wide range of applicability. Stability selection provides finite sample control for some error rates of false discoveries and hence a transpar...

The ability to understand and solve high-dimensional inference problems is essential for modern data science. This article examines high-dimensional inference problems through the lens of information theory and focuses on the standard linear model as a canonical example that is both rich enough to be practically useful and simple enough to be studied rigorously. In particular, this model can exhibit phase transitions where an arbitrarily small change in the model parameters c...

Recently, many regularized procedures have been proposed for variable selection in linear regression, but their performance depends on the tuning parameter selection. Here a criterion for the tuning parameter selection is proposed, which combines the strength of both stability selection and cross-validation and therefore is referred as the prediction and stability selection (PASS). The selection consistency is established assuming the data generating model is a subset of the ...

Sparse Group LASSO (SGL) is a regularized model for high-dimensional linear regression problems with grouped covariates. SGL applies $l_1$ and $l_2$ penalties on the individual predictors and group predictors, respectively, to guarantee sparse effects both on the inter-group and within-group levels. In this paper, we apply the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm to efficiently solve the SGL problem under Gaussian random designs. We further use the recently developed s...

We introduce extensions of stability selection, a method to stabilise variable selection methods introduced by Meinshausen and B\"uhlmann (J R Stat Soc 72:417-473, 2010). We propose to apply a base selection method repeatedly to random observation subsamples and covariate subsets under scrutiny, and to select covariates based on their selection frequency. We analyse the effects and benefits of these extensions. Our analysis generalizes the theoretical results of Meinshausen a...