Correction of overfitting bias in regression models

My first paper exclusively about ridge regression was published in Technometrics and chosen for invited presentation at the 1975 Joint Statistical Meetings in Atlanta. Unfortunately, that paper contained a wide range of assorted details and results. Luckily, Gary McDonald's published discussion of that paper focused primarily on my use of Maximum Likelihood estimation under normal distribution-theory. In this review of some results from all four of my ridge publications betwe...

A new generalized ridge regression shrinkage path is proposed that is as short as possible under the restriction that it must pass through the vector of regression coefficient estimators that make the overall Optimal Variance-Bias Trade-Off under Normal distribution-theory. Five distinct types of ridge TRACE displays plus other graphics for this efficient path are motivated and illustrated here. These visualizations provide invaluable data-analytic insights and improved self-...

In recent years, there has been a significant growth in research focusing on minimum $\ell_2$ norm (ridgeless) interpolation least squares estimators. However, the majority of these analyses have been limited to a simple regression error structure, assuming independent and identically distributed errors with zero mean and common variance. In this paper, we explore prediction risk as well as estimation risk under more general regression error assumptions, highlighting the bene...

The paper shows that the application of the fixed-effect multiple linear regression model to an overparameterized dataset is equivalent to fitting the data with a hyper-curve parameterized by a single scalar parameter. This equivalence allows for a predictor-focused approach, where each predictor is described by a function of the chosen parameter. It is proven that a linear model will produce exact predictions even in the presence of nonlinear dependencies that violate the mo...

Considering the increasing size of available data, the need for statistical methods that control the finite sample bias is growing. This is mainly due to the frequent settings where the number of variables is large and allowed to increase with the sample size bringing standard inferential procedures to incur significant loss in terms of performance. Moreover, the complexity of statistical models is also increasing thereby entailing important computational challenges in constr...

In high dimensional regression, where the number of covariates is of the order of the number of observations, ridge penalization is often used as a remedy against overfitting. Unfortunately, for correlated covariates such regularisation typically induces in generalized linear models not only shrinking of the estimated parameter vector, but also an unwanted \emph{rotation} relative to the true vector. We show analytically how this problem can be removed by using a generalizati...

In this study, we propose shrinkage methods based on {\it generalized ridge regression} (GRR) estimation which is suitable for both multicollinearity and high dimensional problems with small number of samples (large $p$, small $n$). Also, it is obtained theoretical properties of the proposed estimators for Low/High Dimensional cases. Furthermore, the performance of the listed estimators is demonstrated by both simulation studies and real-data analysis, and compare its perform...

This paper analyzes the estimation of econometric models by penalizing the sum of squares of the residuals with a factor that makes the model estimates approximate those that would be obtained when considering the possible simple regressions between the dependent variable of the econometric model and each of its independent variables. It is shown that the ridge estimator is a particular case of the penalized estimator obtained, which, upon analysis of its main characteristics...

The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low-dimensional parameters with high-dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of several of them in a linear regression model, although our ideas are applicable in a much broad context. The theoretical results presented here provide sufficient conditions for the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators along with ...

This paper develops an approach to inference in a linear regression model when the number of potential explanatory variables is larger than the sample size. The approach treats each regression coefficient in turn as the interest parameter, the remaining coefficients being nuisance parameters, and seeks an optimal interest-respecting transformation, inducing sparsity on the relevant blocks of the notional Fisher information matrix. The induced sparsity is exploited through a m...