March 5, 2024
The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is a popular statistical approach for handling correlated data, and is used extensively in applications areas where big data is common, including biomedical data settings. The focus of this paper is scalable statistical inference for the GLMM, where we define statistical inference as: (i) estimation of population parameters, and (ii) evaluation of scientific hypotheses in the presence of uncertainty. Artificial intelligence (AI) learning algorithms excel at scalable statistical estimation, but rarely include uncertainty quantification. In contrast, Bayesian inference provides full statistical inference, since uncertainty quantification results automatically from the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference algorithms, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), become computationally intractable in big data settings. In this paper, we introduce a statistical inference algorithm at the intersection of AI and Bayesian inference, that leverages the scalability of modern AI algorithms with guaranteed uncertainty quantification that accompanies Bayesian inference. Our algorithm is an extension of stochastic gradient MCMC with novel contributions that address the treatment of correlated data (i.e., intractable marginal likelihood) and proper posterior variance estimation. Through theoretical and empirical results we establish our algorithm's statistical inference properties, and apply the method in a large electronic health records database.
Similar papers 1
August 24, 2012
In stochastic variational inference, the variational Bayes objective function is optimized using stochastic gradient approximation, where gradients computed on small random subsets of data are used to approximate the true gradient over the whole data set. This enables complex models to be fit to large data sets as data can be processed in mini-batches. In this article, we extend stochastic variational inference for conjugate-exponential models to nonconjugate models and prese...
July 1, 2017
In many applications involving large dataset or online updating, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) provides a scalable way to compute parameter estimates and has gained increasing popularity due to its numerical convenience and memory efficiency. While the asymptotic properties of SGD-based estimators have been established decades ago, statistical inference such as interval estimation remains much unexplored. The traditional resampling method such as the bootstrap is not comp...
May 17, 2019
Due to the ease of modern data collection, applied statisticians often have access to a large set of covariates that they wish to relate to some observed outcome. Generalized linear models (GLMs) offer a particularly interpretable framework for such an analysis. In these high-dimensional problems, the number of covariates is often large relative to the number of observations, so we face non-trivial inferential uncertainty; a Bayesian approach allows coherent quantification of...
April 4, 2022
Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are often used for analyzing correlated non-Gaussian data. The likelihood function in a GLMM is available only as a high dimensional integral, and thus closed-form inference and prediction are not possible for GLMMs. Since the likelihood is not available in a closed-form, the associated posterior densities in Bayesian GLMMs are also intractable. Generally, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used for conditional simulation in...
October 31, 2023
Bayesian Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) define a flexible probabilistic framework to model categorical, ordinal and continuous data, and are widely used in practice. However, exact inference in GLMs is prohibitively expensive for large datasets, thus requiring approximations in practice. The resulting approximation error adversely impacts the reliability of the model and is not accounted for in the uncertainty of the prediction. In this work, we introduce a family of iterat...
November 24, 2014
Explosive growth in data and availability of cheap computing resources have sparked increasing interest in Big learning, an emerging subfield that studies scalable machine learning algorithms, systems, and applications with Big Data. Bayesian methods represent one important class of statistic methods for machine learning, with substantial recent developments on adaptive, flexible and scalable Bayesian learning. This article provides a survey of the recent advances in Big lear...
October 7, 2008
We present a sequential Monte Carlo sampler algorithm for the Bayesian analysis of generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs). These models support a variety of interesting regression-type analyses, but performing inference is often extremely difficult, even when using the Bayesian approach combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The Sequential Monte Carlo sampler (SMC) is a new and general method for producing samples from posterior distributions. In this article we demo...
February 7, 2020
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed dimension and the log-posterior density is differentiable with respect to the parameters. This paper proposes an extended stochastic gradient MCMC lgoriathm which, by introducing appropriate latent variables, can be applied to more general lar...
July 17, 2024
This book aims to provide a graduate-level introduction to advanced topics in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, as applied broadly in the Bayesian computational context. Most, if not all of these topics (stochastic gradient MCMC, non-reversible MCMC, continuous time MCMC, and new techniques for convergence assessment) have emerged as recently as the last decade, and have driven substantial recent practical and theoretical advances in the field. A particular focus is...
January 14, 2015
A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn from an approximate posterior. However, its feasibility is being challenged in the era of so called Big Data as all data needs to be processed in every iteration. Realising that such simulation is an unnecessarily hard problem if the goal is...