Physical modelling of global macrosystems evolution

This paper discusses dynamic evolutionary economics, and introduces a model of such.

We introduce a complex systems perspective on innovation in networks in which innovation is conceptualized as a form of creative act associated with the dynamics and evolution of business network. We show how innovation is a form of creative act that involves the creation of new ideas and their exploitation, in which new ideas come from combining and recombining existing ideas in new ways that have value. We stress the need to move away from traditional linear, comparative st...

This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustain existing circulations and to further its material growth. Appealing to a prior result that established a fixed relationship between a very general representat...

Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities. In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products....

In this work we analyze how reputation-based interactions influence the emergence of innovations. To do so, we make use of a dynamic model that mimics the discovery process by which, at each time step, a pair of individuals meet and merge their knowledge to eventually result in a novel technology of higher value. The way in which these pairs are brought together is found to be crucial for achieving the highest technological level. Our results show that when the influence of r...

A general theory of innovation and progress in human society is outlined, based on the combat between two opposite forces (conservatism/inertia and speculative herding "bubble" behavior). We contend that human affairs are characterized by ubiquitous ``bubbles'', which involve huge risks which would not otherwise be taken using standard cost/benefit analysis. Bubbles result from self-reinforcing positive feedbacks. This leads to explore uncharted territories and niches whose r...

The interactions among human beings represent the backbone of our societies. How people interact, establish new connections, and allocate their activities among these links can reveal a lot of our social organization. Despite focused attention by very diverse scientific communities, we still lack a first-principles modeling framework able to account for the birth and evolution of social networks. Here, we tackle this problem by looking at social interactions as a way to explo...

I explore the concept of growth being rooted in the recombination of existing technology as an explanation for the remarkable growth witnessed during the Industrial Revolution as it was recently proposed by Koppl et al.(2023). I adapt their combinatorial growth theory to assess its applicability in generating academic knowledge within universities and research institutions, particularly in the field of economics. The central question is whether significant combinatorial growt...

The current science of cities can provide a useful foundation for future urban policies, provided that these proposals have been validated by correct observations of the diversity of situations in the world. However, international comparisons of the evolution of cities often produce uncertain results because national territorial frameworks are not always in strict correspondence with the dynamics of urban systems. We propose to provide various compositions of systems of citie...

The dynamics of urban systems can be understood from an evolutionary perspective, in some sense extending biological and cultural evolution. Models for systems of cities implementing elementary evolutionary processes remain however to be investigated. We propose here such a model for urban dynamics at the macroscopic scale, in which the diffusion of innovations between cities captures transformation processes (mutations) and transmission processes (diffusion), using two coupl...