Innovation beyond intention: harnessing exaptation for technological breakthroughs

We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents from 1836 to 2017, we make out-of-sample predictions and find that the predictability of innovation rates can be boosted substantially when network effects are taken into account. In the case where a technology$'$s neighborhood future innovation rates are known, the average predictability gain is 28$\%...

The quest for historically impactful science and technology provides invaluable insight into the innovation dynamics of human society, yet many studies are limited to qualitative and small-scale approaches. Here, we investigate scientific evolution through systematic analysis of a massive corpus of digitized English texts between 1800 and 2008. Our analysis reveals great predictability for long-prevailing scientific concepts based on the levels of their prior usage. Interesti...

We introduce a model for the emergence of innovations, in which cognitive processes are described as random walks on the network of links among ideas or concepts, and an innovation corresponds to the first visit of a node. The transition matrix of the random walk depends on the network weights, while in turn the weight of an edge is reinforced by the passage of a walker. The presence of the network naturally accounts for the mechanism of the adjacent possible, and the model r...

Determining how scientific achievements influence the subsequent process of knowledge creation is a fundamental step in order to build a unified ecosystem for studying the dynamics of innovation and competitiveness. Relying separately on data about scientific production on one side, through bibliometric indicators, and about technological advancements on the other side, through patents statistics, gives only a limited insight on the key interplay between science and technolog...

The past half-century has seen a dramatic increase in the scale and complexity of scientific research, to which researchers have responded by dedicating more time to education and training, narrowing their areas of specialization, and collaborating in larger teams. A widely held view is that such collaborations, by fostering specialization and encouraging novel combinations of ideas, accelerate scientific innovation. However, recent research challenges this notion, suggesting...

Serendipity plays an important role in scientific discovery. Indeed, many of the most important breakthroughs, ranging from penicillin to the electric battery, have been made by scientists who were stimulated by a chance exposure to unsought but useful information. However, not all scientists are equally likely to benefit from such serendipitous exposure. Although scholars generally agree that scientists with a prepared mind are most likely to benefit from serendipitous encou...

The present paper extends the literature investigating key drivers leading certain patents to exert a stronger influence on the subsequent technological developments (inventions) than other ones. We investigated six key determinants, as (i) the use of scientific knowledge, (ii) the breadth of the technological base, (iii) the existence of collaboration in patent development, (iv) the number of claims, (v) the scope, and (vi) the novelty, and how the effect of these determinan...

A recent analysis of scientific publication and patent citation networks by Park et al. (Nature, 2023) suggests that publications and patents are becoming less disruptive over time. Here we show that the reported decrease in disruptiveness is an artifact of systematic shifts in the structure of citation networks unrelated to innovation system capacity. Instead, the decline is attributable to 'citation inflation', an unavoidable characteristic of real citation networks that ma...

In the ever-evolving landscape of technology, product innovation thrives on replacing outdated technologies with groundbreaking ones or through the ingenious recombination of existing technologies. Our study embarks on a revolutionary journey by genetically representing products, extracting their chromosomal data, and constructing a comprehensive phylogenetic network of automobiles. We delve deep into the technological features that shape innovation, pinpointing the ancestral...

This study examines the network of supply and use of significant innovations across industries in Sweden, 1970-2013. It is found that 30% of innovation patterns can be predicted by network stimulus from backward and forward linkages. The network is hierarchical, characterized by hubs that connect diverse industries in closely knitted communities. To explain the network structure, a preferential weight assignment process is proposed as an adaptation of the classical preferenti...