The Backwards Arrow of Time of the Coherently Bayesian Statistical Mechanic

This paper is a non-technical, informal presentation of our theory of the second law of thermodynamics as a law that is independent of statistical mechanics and that is derivable solely from certain simple assumptions about adiabatic processes for macroscopic systems. It is not necessary to assume a-priori concepts such as "heat", "hot and cold", "temperature". These are derivable from entropy, whose existence we derive from the basic assumptions. See cond-mat/9708200 and mat...

Time-arrow $s=+/-$, intrinsic to a concrete physical system, is associated with the direction of information loss $\Delta I$ displayed by the random evolution of the given system. When the information loss tends to zero the intrinsic time-arrow becomes uncertain. We propose the heuristic relationship $1/[1+exp(-s\Delta I)]$ for the probability of the intrinsic time-arrow. The main parts of the present work are trying to confirm this heuristic equation. The probability of intr...

The selection of an equilibrium state by maximising the entropy of a system, subject to certain constraints, is often powerfully motivated as an exercise in logical inference, a procedure where conclusions are reached on the basis of incomplete information. But such a framework can be more compelling if it is underpinned by dynamical arguments, and we show how this can be provided by stochastic thermodynamics, where an explicit link is made between the production of entropy a...

The irreversibility in a statistical system is traced to its probabilistic evolution, and the molecular chaos assumption is not its unique consequence as is commonly believed. Under the assumption that the rate of change of the each microstate probability vanishes only as time diverges, we prove that the entropy of a system at constant energy cannot decrease with time.

Bayesian maxent lets one integrate thermal physics and information theory points of view in the quantitative study of complex systems. Since net surprisal (a free energy analog for measuring "departures from expected") allows one to place second law constraints on mutual information (a multi-moment measure of correlations), it makes a quantitative case for the role of reversible thermalization in the natural history of invention, and suggests multiscale strategies to monitor ...

Statistical thermodynamics has a universal appeal that extends beyond molecular systems, and yet, as its tools are being transplanted to fields outside physics, the fundamental question, \textit{what is thermodynamics?}, has remained unanswered. We answer this question here. Generalized statistical thermodynamics is a variational calculus of probability distributions. It is independent of physical hypotheses but provides the means to incorporate our knowledge, assumptions and...

MaxEnt inference algorithm and information theory are relevant for the time evolution of macroscopic systems considered as problem of incomplete information. Two different MaxEnt approaches are introduced in this work, both applied to prediction of time evolution for closed Hamiltonian systems. The first one is based on Liouville equation for the conditional probability distribution, introduced as a strict microscopic constraint on time evolution in phase space. The condition...

I explore the possibility that the laws of physics might be laws of inference rather than laws of nature. What sort of dynamics can one derive from well-established rules of inference? Specifically, I ask: Given relevant information codified in the initial and the final states, what trajectory is the system expected to follow? The answer follows from a principle of inference, the principle of maximum entropy, and not from a principle of physics. The entropic dynamics derived ...

We prove that information-theoretic maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach to canonical ensemble is mathematically equivalent to the classic approach of Boltzmann, Gibbs and Darwin-Fowler. The two approaches, however, "interpret" a same mathematical theorem differently; most notably observing mean-energy in the former and energy conservation in the latter. However, applying the same MaxEnt method to grand canonical ensemble fails; while carefully following the classic approach bas...

Entropy is the distinguishing and most important concept of our efforts to understand and regularize our observations of a very large class of natural phenomena, and yet, it is one of the most contentious concepts of physics. In this article, we review two expositions of thermodynamics, one without reference to quantum theory, and the other quantum mechanical without probabilities of statistical mechanics. In the first, we show that entropy is an inherent property of any syst...