Probabilistic Events and Physical Reality: A Complete Algebra of Probability

We consider a conception of reality that is the following: An object is 'real' if we know that if we would try to test whether this object is present, this test would give us the answer 'yes' with certainty. If we consider a conception of reality where probability plays a fundamental role it can be shown that standard probability theory is not well suited to substitute 'certainty' by means of 'probability equal to 1'. The analysis of this problem leads us to propose a new typ...

The aim of this paper is to show that the concept of probability is best understood by dividing this concept into two different types of probability, namely physical probability and analogical probability. Loosely speaking, a physical probability is a probability that applies to the outcomes of an experiment that have been judged as being equally likely on the basis of physical symmetry. Physical probabilities are arguably in some sense 'objective' and possess all the standar...

Classical statistics and Bayesian statistics refer to the frequentist and subjective theories of probability respectively. Von Mises and De Finetti, who authored those conceptualizations, provide interpretations of the probability that appear incompatible. This discrepancy raises ample debates and the foundations of the probability calculus emerge as a tricky, open issue so far. Instead of developing philosophical discussion, this research resorts to analytical and mathematic...

Recent results suggest that quantum mechanical phenomena may be interpreted as a failure of standard probability theory and may be described by a Bayesian complex probability theory.

This paper addresses the central question of what a coherent concept of probability might look like that would do justice to both classical probability theory, axiomatized by Kolmogorov, and quantum theory. At a time when quanta are receiving increased and expanded attention -- think, for example, of the advances in quantum computers or the promises associated with this new technology (National Academies of Sciences: Engineering, and Medicine, 2019) -- an adequate interpretat...

We analyze the notion that physical theories are quantitative and testable by observations in experiments. This leads us to propose a new, Bayesian, interpretation of probabilities in physics that unifies their current use in classical physical theories, experimental physics and quantum mechanics. Probabilities are the result of quantifying the domain of possibilities that results when we interpret observations within the framework of a physical theory. They could also be sai...

A distinction is sometimes made between "statistical" and "subjective" probabilities. This is based on a distinction between "unique" events and "repeatable" events. We argue that this distinction is untenable, since all events are "unique" and all events belong to "kinds", and offer a conception of probability for A1 in which (1) all probabilities are based on -- possibly vague -- statistical knowledge, and (2) every statement in the language has a probability. This concepti...

These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

This paper argues for a modal view of probability. The syntax and semantics of one particularly strong probability logic are discussed and some examples of the use of the logic are provided. We show that it is both natural and useful to think of probability as a modal operator. Contrary to popular belief in AI, a probability ranging between 0 and 1 represents a continuum between impossibility and necessity, not between simple falsity and truth. The present work provides a cle...

In this review article we present different formal frameworks for the description of generalized probabilities in statistical theories. We discuss the particular cases of probabilities appearing in classical and quantum mechanics, possible generalizations of the approaches of A. N. Kolmogorov and R. T. Cox to non-commutative models, and the approach to generalized probabilities based on convex sets.