Deterministic modal Bayesian Logic: derive the Bayesian inference within the modal logic T

Probabilistic systems are an important theme in AI domain. As the specification language, the logic PCTL is now the default logic for reasoning about probabilistic properties. In this paper, we present a natural and succinct probabilistic extension of mu-calculus, another prominent logic in the concurrency theory. We study the relationship with PCTL. Interestingly, the expressiveness is highly orthogonal with PCTL. The proposed logic captures some useful properties which cann...

We consider the question of extending propositional logic to a logic of plausible reasoning, and posit four requirements that any such extension should satisfy. Each is a requirement that some property of classical propositional logic be preserved in the extended logic; as such, the requirements are simpler and less problematic than those used in Cox's Theorem and its variants. As with Cox's Theorem, our requirements imply that the extended logic must be isomorphic to (finite...

In this paper we recall some results for conditional events, compound conditionals, conditional random quantities, p-consistency, and p-entailment. Then, we show the equivalence between bets on conditionals and conditional bets, by reviewing de Finetti's trivalent analysis of conditionals. But our approach goes beyond de Finetti's early trivalent logical analysis and is based on his later ideas, aiming to take his proposals to a higher level. We examine two recent articles th...

We present a probabilistic extension of the description logic $\mathcal{ALC}$ for reasoning about statistical knowledge. We consider conditional statements over proportions of the domain and are interested in the probabilistic-logical consequences of these proportions. After introducing some general reasoning problems and analyzing their properties, we present first algorithms and complexity results for reasoning in some fragments of Statistical $\mathcal{ALC}$.

A recent line of research has developed around logics of belief based on evidence. The approach of B\'ilkov\'a et al understands belief as based on information confirmed by a reliable source. We propose a finer analysis of how belief can be based on information, where the confirmation comes from multiple possibly conflicting sources and is of a probabilistic nature. We use Belnap-Dunn logic and its probabilistic extensions to account for potentially contradictory information ...

A natural way to represent beliefs and the process of updating beliefs is presented by Bayesian probability theory, where belief of an agent a in P can be interpreted as a considering that P is more probable than not P. This paper attempts to get at the core logical notion underlying this. The paper presents a sound and complete neighbourhood logic for conditional belief and knowledge, and traces the connections with probabilistic logics of belief and knowledge. The key not...

I aim to promote an alternative agenda for teaching modal logic chiefly inspired by the relationships between modal logic and philosophy. The guiding idea for this proposal is a reappraisal of the interest of modal logic in philosophy, which do not stem mainly from mathematical issues, but which is motivated by central problems of philosophy and language. I will point out some themes to start elaborating a guide for a more comprehensive approach to teach modal logic, and cons...

(l) I have enough evidence to render the sentence S probable. (la) So, relative to what I know, it is rational of me to believe S. (2) Now that I have more evidence, S may no longer be probable. (2a) So now, relative to what I know, it is not rational of me to believe S. These seem a perfectly ordinary, common sense, pair of situations. Generally and vaguely, I take them to embody what I shall call probabilistic inference. This form of inference is clearly non-monotonic. Rela...

Formalisms for specifying statistical models, such as probabilistic-programming languages, typically consist of two components: a specification of a stochastic process (the prior), and a specification of observations that restrict the probability space to a conditional subspace (the posterior). Use cases of such formalisms include the development of algorithms in machine learning and artificial intelligence. We propose and investigate a declarative framework for specifying st...

We propose a formal language for describing and explaining statistical causality. Concretely, we define Statistical Causality Language (StaCL) for expressing causal effects and specifying the requirements for causal inference. StaCL incorporates modal operators for interventions to express causal properties between probability distributions in different possible worlds in a Kripke model. We formalize axioms for probability distributions, interventions, and causal predicates u...