Analysis of Stochstic Evolution

We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments distribution and the decay of the volatility correlations are rather robust and suggest universality. However, many of the models that appear naturally (for example, to account for the distribution of wealth) contain some multiplicative noise, w...

Using a model based on generalised Lotka Volterra dynamics together with some recent results for the solution of generalised Langevin equations, we show that the equilibrium solution for the probability distribution of wealth has two characteristic regimes. For large values of wealth it takes the form of a Pareto style power law. For small values of wealth, (w less then wmin) the distribution function tends sharply to zero with infinite slope. The origin of this law lies in t...

When the probability of measuring a particular value of some quantity varies inversely as a power of that value, the quantity is said to follow a power law, also known variously as Zipf's law or the Pareto distribution. Power laws appear widely in physics, biology, earth and planetary sciences, economics and finance, computer science, demography and the social sciences. For instance, the distributions of the sizes of cities, earthquakes, solar flares, moon craters, wars and p...

The cornerstone of Boltzmann-Gibbs ($BG$) statistical mechanics is the Boltzmann-Gibbs-Jaynes-Shannon entropy $S_{BG} \equiv -k\int dx f(x)\ln f(x)$, where $k$ is a positive constant and $f(x)$ a probability density function. This theory has exibited, along more than one century, great success in the treatment of systems where short spatio/temporal correlations dominate. There are, however, anomalous natural and artificial systems that violate the basic requirements for its a...

Stochastic exponential growth is observed in a variety of contexts, including molecular autocatalysis, nuclear fission, population growth, inflation of the universe, viral social media posts, and financial markets. Yet literature on modeling the phenomenology of these stochastic dynamics has predominantly focused on one model, Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), which can be described as the solution of a Langevin equation with linear drift and linear multiplicative noise. Using...

Heavy-tailed distributions are found throughout many naturally occurring phenomena. We have reviewed the models of stochastic dynamics that lead to heavy-tailed distributions (and power law distributions, in particular) including the multiplicative noise models, the models subjected to the Degree-Mass-Action principle (the generalized preferential attachment principle), the intermittent behavior occurring in complex physical systems near a bifurcation point, queuing systems, ...

The dynamics of generic stochastic Lotka-Volterra (discrete logistic) systems of the form \cite{Solomon96a} $w_i (t+1) = \lambda(t) w_i (t) + a {\bar w (t)} - b w_i (t) {\bar w(t)}$ is studied by computer simulations. The variables $w_i$, $i=1,...N$, are the individual system components and ${\bar w (t)} = {1\over N} \sum_i w_i (t)$ is their average. The parameters $a$ and $b$ are constants, while $\lambda(t)$ is randomly chosen at each time step from a given distribution. Mo...

Generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) models extending the (70 year old) logistic equation to stochastic systems consisting of a multitude of competing auto-catalytic components lead to power distribution laws of the (100 year old) Pareto-Zipf type. In particular, when applied to economic systems, GLV leads to power laws in the relative individual wealth distribution and in the market returns. These power laws and their exponent alpha are invariant to arbitrary variations in the t...

Recently, we developed a theory of a geometrically growing system. Here we show that the theory can explain some phenomena of power-law distribution including classical demographic and economic and novel pandemic instances, without introduction of delicate economic models but only on the statistical way. A convexity in the low-size part of the distribution is one peculiarity of the theory, which is absent in the power-law distribution. We found that the distribution of the ge...

We study by theoretical analysis and by direct numerical simulation the dynamics of a wide class of asynchronous stochastic systems composed of many autocatalytic degrees of freedom. We describe the generic emergence of truncated power laws in the size distribution of their individual elements. The exponents $\alpha$ of these power laws are time independent and depend only on the way the elements with very small values are treated. These truncated power laws determine the col...