October 17, 2015
We consider the problem of finding optimal strategies that maximize the average growth-rate of multiplicative stochastic processes. For a geometric Brownian motion the problem is solved through the so-called Kelly criterion, according to which the optimal growth rate is achieved by investing a constant given fraction of resources at any step of the dynamics. We generalize these finding to the case of dynamical equations with finite carrying capacity, which can find applications in biology, mathematical ecology, and finance. We formulate the problem in terms of a stochastic process with multiplicative noise and a non-linear drift term that is determined by the specific functional form of carrying capacity. We solve the stochastic equation for two classes of carrying capacity functions (power laws and logarithmic), and in both cases compute optimal trajectories of the control parameter. We further test the validity of our analytical results using numerical simulations.
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We deal with an infinite horizon, infinite dimensional stochastic optimal control problem arising in the study of economic growth in time-space. Such problem has been the object of various papers in deterministic cases when the possible presence of stochastic disturbances is ignored. Here we propose and solve a stochastic generalization of such models where the stochastic term, in line with the standard stochastic economic growth models, is a multiplicative one, driven by a c...
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We consider a stochastic model of investment on an asset of a stock market for a prudent investor. She decides to buy permanent goods with a fraction $\a$ of the maximum amount of money owned in her life in order that her economic level never decreases. The optimal strategy is obtained by maximizing the exponential growth rate for a fixed $\a$. We derive analytical expressions for the typical exponential growth rate of the capital and its fluctuations by solving an one-dimens...
We consider stochastic dynamics of a population which starts from a small colony on a habitat with large but limited carrying capacity. A common heuristics suggests that such population grows initially as a Galton-Watson branching process and then its size follows an almost deterministic path until reaching its maximum, sustainable by the habitat. In this paper we put forward an alternative and, in fact, more accurate approximation which suggests that the population size beha...
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Stochastic exponential growth is observed in a variety of contexts, including molecular autocatalysis, nuclear fission, population growth, inflation of the universe, viral social media posts, and financial markets. Yet literature on modeling the phenomenology of these stochastic dynamics has predominantly focused on one model, Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), which can be described as the solution of a Langevin equation with linear drift and linear multiplicative noise. Using...
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We study long-term growth-optimal strategies on a simple market with linear proportional transaction costs. We show that several problems of this sort can be solved in closed form, and explicit the non-analytic dependance of optimal strategies and expected frictional losses of the friction parameter. We present one derivation in terms of invariant measures of drift-diffusion processes (Fokker- Planck approach), and one derivation using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of ...
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