A probabilistic model for the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$

This is an introduction to a probabilistic model for the arithmetic of elliptic curves, a model developed in a series of articles of the author with Bhargava, Kane, Lenstra, Park, Rains, Voight, and Wood. We discuss the theoretical evidence for the model, and we make predictions about elliptic curves based on corresponding theorems proved about the model. In particular, the model suggests that all but finitely many elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank $\le 21$, which w...

Most systematic tables of data associated to ranks of elliptic curves order the curves by conductor. Recent developments, led by work of Bhargava-Shankar studying the average sizes of $n$-Selmer groups, have given new upper bounds on the average algebraic rank in families of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height. We describe databases of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height in which we compute ranks and $2$-Selmer group sizes, the distributions of...

In this article, we prove that the average rank of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, when ordered by height, is less than $1$ (in fact, less than $.885$). As a consequence of our methods, we also prove that at least four fifths of all elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank either 0 or 1; furthermore, at least one fifth of all elliptic curves in fact have rank 0. The primary ingredient in the proofs of these theorems is a determination of the average size of the $5$-Selm...

In this paper, under GRH for elliptic $L$-functions, we give an upper bound for the probability for an elliptic curve with analytic rank $\leq a$ for $a \geq 11$, and also give an upper bound of $n$-th moments of analytic ranks of elliptic curves. These are applications of counting elliptic curves with local conditions, for example, having good reduction at $p$.

We study the distribution of 2-Selmer ranks in the family of quadratic twists of an elliptic curve E over an arbitrary number field K. Under the assumption that Gal(K(E[2])/K) = S_3 we show that the density (counted in a non-standard way) of twists with Selmer rank r exists for all positive integers r, and is given via an equilibrium distribution, depending only on a single parameter (the `disparity'), of a certain Markov process that is itself independent of E and K. More ge...

Bhargava and Shankar prove that as E varies over all elliptic curves over Q, the average rank of the finitely generated abelian group E(Q) is bounded. This result follows from an exact formula for the average size of the 2-Selmer group, which in turn follows from an asymptotic formula for the number of binary quartic forms over Z with bounded invariants. We explain their proof, as well as other arithmetic applications.

This paper presents a new result concerning the distribution of 2-Selmer ranks in the quadratic twist family of an elliptic curve with a single point of order two that does not have a cyclic 4-isogeny defined over its two-division field. We prove that at least half of all the quadratic twists of such an elliptic curve have arbitrarily large 2-Selmer rank, showing that the distribution of 2-Selmer ranks in the quadratic twist family of such an elliptic curve differs from the d...

Determining the rank of an elliptic curve E/Q is a hard problem, and in some applications (e.g. when searching for curves of high rank) one has to rely on heuristics aimed at estimating the analytic rank (which is equal to the rank under the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture). In this paper, we develop rank classification heuristics modeled by deep convolutional neural networks (CNN). Similarly to widely used Mestre-Nagao sums, it takes as an input the conductor of E and...

Based on an equation for the rank of an elliptic surface over $\mathbb{Q}$ which appears in the work of Nagao, Rosen, and Silverman, we conjecture that 100% of elliptic surfaces have rank $0$ when ordered by the size of the coefficients of their Weierstrass equations, and present a probabilistic heuristic to justify this conjecture. We then discuss how it would follow from either understanding of certain $L$-functions, or from understanding of the local behaviour of the surfa...

Fix a prime number $p$. Let $\mathbb{F}_q$ be a finite field of characteristic coprime to 2, 3, and $p$, which also contains the primitive $p$-th root of unity $\mu_p$. Based on the works by Swinnerton-Dyer and Klagsbrun, Mazur, and Rubin, we prove that the probability distribution of the sizes of prime Selmer groups over a family of cyclic prime twists of non-isotrivial elliptic curves over $\mathbb{F}_q(t)$ satisfying a number of mild constraints conforms to the distributio...