A probabilistic model for the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$

We discuss the distribution of Mordell--Weil ranks of the family of elliptic curves $y^2=(x+\alpha f^2)(x+\beta b g^2)(x+\gamma h^2)$ where $f,g,h$ are coprime polynomials that parametrize the projective smooth conic $a^2+b^2=c^2$ and $\alpha,\beta,\gamma$ are elements from $\overline{\mathbb{Q}}$. In our previous papers we discussed certain special cases of this problem and in this article we complete the picture by proving the general results.

This paper presents a new result concerning the distribution of 2-Selmer ranks in the quadratic twist family of an elliptic curve over an arbitrary number field K with a single point of order two that does not have a cyclic 4-isogeny defined over its two-division field. We prove that at least half of all the quadratic twists of such an elliptic curve have arbitrarily large 2-Selmer rank, showing that the distribution of 2-Selmer ranks in the quadratic twist family of such an ...

We give upper bounds for the number of rational elliptic surfaces in some families having positive rank, obtaining in particular that these form a subset of density zero. This confirms Cowan's conjecture (arXiv:2009.08622v2) in the case $m,n\leq2$.

We study the average behaviour of the Iwasawa invariants for Selmer groups of elliptic curves. These results lie at the intersection of arithmetic statistics and Iwasawa theory. We obtain unconditional lower bounds for the density of rational elliptic curves with prescribed Iwasawa invariants.

The aim of this article is to give some numerical data related to the order of the Selmer groups in twist families of elliptic curves. To do this we assume the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is true and we use a celebrated theorem of Waldspurger to get a fast algorithm to compute $% L_{E}(1)$. Having an extensive amount of data we compare the distribution of the order of the Selmer groups by functions of type $\alpha \frac{(\log \log (X))^{1+\varepsilon}}{\log (X)}$ wit...

All the results in this paper are conditional on the Riemann Hypothesis for the L-functions of elliptic curves. Under this assumption, we show that the average analytic rank of all elliptic curves over Q is at most 2, thereby improving a result of Brumer. We also show that the average within any family of quadratic twists is at most 3/2, improving a result of Goldfeld. A third result concerns the density of curves with analytic rank at least R, and shows that the proportion o...

We adopt a statistical point of view on the conjecture of Lang which predicts a lower bound for the canonical height of non-torsion rational points on elliptic curves defined over $\mathbb{Q}$. More specifically, we prove that among the family of all elliptic curves defined over $\mathbb{Q}$ and having positive rank, there is a density one subfamily of curves which satisfy a strong form of Lang's conjecture.

The paper proves that the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is false.

We present a heuristic that suggests that ranks of elliptic curves over the rationals are bounded. In fact, it suggests that there are only finitely many elliptic curves of rank greater than 21. Our heuristic is based on modeling the ranks and Shafarevich-Tate groups of elliptic curves simultaneously, and relies on a theorem counting alternating integer matrices of specified rank. We also discuss analogues for elliptic curves over other global fields.

We conjecture that, for a fixed prime $p$, rational elliptic curves with higher rank tend to have more points mod $p$. We show that there is an analogous bias for modular forms with respect to root numbers, and conjecture that the order of the rank bias for elliptic curves is greater than that of the root number bias for modular forms.