Murmurations of elliptic curves

We present experimental evidence to support the widely held belief that one half of all elliptic curves have infinitely many rational points. The method used to gather this evidence is a refinement of an algorithm due to the author which is based upon rigid and crystalline cohomology.

All the results in this paper are conditional on the Riemann Hypothesis for the L-functions of elliptic curves. Under this assumption, we show that the average analytic rank of all elliptic curves over Q is at most 2, thereby improving a result of Brumer. We also show that the average within any family of quadratic twists is at most 3/2, improving a result of Goldfeld. A third result concerns the density of curves with analytic rank at least R, and shows that the proportion o...

We describe some experiments that show a connection between elliptic curves of high rank and the Riemann zeta function on the one line. We also discuss a couple of statistics involving $L$-functions where the zeta function on the one line plays a prominent role.

In this article, we study the family of elliptic curves $E/\mathbb{Q}$, having good reduction at $2$ and $3$, and whose $j$-invariants are small. Within this set of elliptic curves, we consider the following two subfamilies: first, the set of elliptic curves $E$ such that the ratio $\Delta(E)/C(E)$ is squarefree; and second, the set of elliptic curves $E$ such that $\Delta(E)/C(E)$ is bounded by a small power $(<3/4)$ of $C(E)$. Both these families are conjectured to contain ...

In this paper we refine recent work due to A. Shankar, A. N. Shankar, and X. Wang on counting elliptic curves by conductor to the case of elliptic curves with a rational 2-torsion point. This family is a small family, as opposed to the large families considered by the aforementioned authors. We prove the analogous counting theorem for elliptic curves with so-called square-free index as well as for curves with suitably bounded Szpiro ratios. We note that our assumptions on the...

In this paper, under GRH for elliptic $L$-functions, we give an upper bound for the probability for an elliptic curve with analytic rank $\leq a$ for $a \geq 11$, and also give an upper bound of $n$-th moments of analytic ranks of elliptic curves. These are applications of counting elliptic curves with local conditions, for example, having good reduction at $p$.

We investigate the average rank in the family of quadratic twists of a given elliptic curve defined over $\mathbb{Q}$, when the curves are ordered using the canonical height of their lowest non-torsion rational point.

We study the average behaviour of the Iwasawa invariants for the Selmer groups of elliptic curves, setting out new directions in arithmetic statistics and Iwasawa theory.

We give a conditional bound for the average analytic rank of elliptic curves over an arbitrary number field. In particular, under the assumptions that all elliptic curves over a number field $K$ are modular and have $L$-functions which satisfy the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis, we show that the average analytic rank of isomorphism classes of elliptic curves over $K$ is bounded above by $3\text{deg}(K)+1/2$. A key ingredient in the proof of this result is to give asymptotics ...

This paper presents empirical evidence supporting Goldfeld's conjecture on the average analytic rank of a family of quadratic twists of a fixed elliptic curve in the function field setting. In particular, we consider representatives of the four classes of non-isogenous elliptic curves over F_q(t) with (q,6)=1 possessing two places of multiplicative reduction and one place of additive reduction. The case of q=5 provides the largest data set as well as the most convincing evide...