Murmurations of Mestre-Nagao sums

We present an heuristic argument for the prediction of expected Mordell-Weil rank of elliptic curves over number fields, using Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer's original conjecture and Sato-Tate conjectures. We do calculations in some cases and raise questions about their relations, if any, with the predictions of various average rank models that have been considered.

Let $p$ be an odd prime. We study Mazur's conjecture on the growth of the Mordell--Weil ranks of an elliptic curve $E/\mathbb{Q}$ over $\mathbb{Z}_p$-extensions of an imaginary quadratic field, where $p$ is a prime of good reduction for $E$. In particular, we obtain criteria that may be checked through explicit calculation, thus allowing for the verification of Mazur's conjecture in specific examples.

Let $E/\mathbb{Q}$ be an elliptic curve of level $N$ and rank equal to $1$. Let $p$ be a prime of ordinary reduction. We experimentally study conjecture $4$ of B. Mazur and J. Tate in his article "Refined Conjectures of the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Type". We report the computational evidence.

We describe an algorithm to prove the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjectural formula for any given elliptic curve defined over the rational numbers of analytic rank zero or one. With computer assistance we have proved the formula for 16714 of the 16725 such curves of conductor less than 5000.

Based on an equation for the rank of an elliptic surface over $\mathbb{Q}$ which appears in the work of Nagao, Rosen, and Silverman, we conjecture that 100% of elliptic surfaces have rank $0$ when ordered by the size of the coefficients of their Weierstrass equations, and present a probabilistic heuristic to justify this conjecture. We then discuss how it would follow from either understanding of certain $L$-functions, or from understanding of the local behaviour of the surfa...

We report on two machine learning experiments in search of statistical relationships between Dirichlet coefficients and root numbers or analytic ranks of certain low-degree $L$-functions. The first experiment is to construct interpretable models based on murmurations, a recently discovered correlation between Dirichlet coefficients and root numbers. We show experimentally that these models achieve high accuracy by learning a combination of Mestre-Nagao type heuristics and mur...

In this paper, under GRH for elliptic $L$-functions, we give an upper bound for the probability for an elliptic curve with analytic rank $\leq a$ for $a \geq 11$, and also give an upper bound of $n$-th moments of analytic ranks of elliptic curves. These are applications of counting elliptic curves with local conditions, for example, having good reduction at $p$.

The aim of this article is to give some numerical data related to the order of the Selmer groups in twist families of elliptic curves. To do this we assume the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is true and we use a celebrated theorem of Waldspurger to get a fast algorithm to compute $% L_{E}(1)$. Having an extensive amount of data we compare the distribution of the order of the Selmer groups by functions of type $\alpha \frac{(\log \log (X))^{1+\varepsilon}}{\log (X)}$ wit...

If $E$ is an elliptic curve defined over $\mathbb Q$ and $p$ is a prime of good reduction for $E$, let $E(\mathbb F_p)$ denote the set of points on the reduced curve modulo $p$. Define an arithmetic function $M_E(N)$ by setting $M_E(N):= \#\{p: \#E(\mathbb F_p)= N\}$. Recently, David and the third author studied the average of $M_E(N)$ over certain "boxes" of elliptic curves $E$. Assuming a plausible conjecture about primes in short intervals, they showed the following: for o...

Let $E$ be an elliptic curve defined over ${\mathbb Q}$. For a prime $p$ of good reduction for $E$, denote by $e_p$ the exponent of the reduction of $E$ modulo $p$. Under GRH, we prove that there is a constant $C_E\in (0, 1)$ such that $$ \frac{1}{\pi(x)} \sum_{p\le x} e_p = 1/2 C_E x + O_E\big(x^{5/6} (\log x)^{4/3}\big) $$ for all $x\ge 2$, where the implied constant depends on $E$ at most. When $E$ has complex multiplication, the same asymptotic formula with a weaker error...