Murmurations of Mestre-Nagao sums

We investigate the average value of the $p$th Dirichlet coefficients of elliptic curves for a prime p in a fixed conductor range with given rank. Plotting this average yields a striking oscillating pattern, the details of which vary with the rank. Based on this observation, we perform various data-scientific experiments with the goal of classifying elliptic curves according to their ranks.

Determining the rank of an elliptic curve E/Q is a hard problem, and in some applications (e.g. when searching for curves of high rank) one has to rely on heuristics aimed at estimating the analytic rank (which is equal to the rank under the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture). In this paper, we develop rank classification heuristics modeled by deep convolutional neural networks (CNN). Similarly to widely used Mestre-Nagao sums, it takes as an input the conductor of E and...

This is an introduction to a probabilistic model for the arithmetic of elliptic curves, a model developed in a series of articles of the author with Bhargava, Kane, Lenstra, Park, Rains, Voight, and Wood. We discuss the theoretical evidence for the model, and we make predictions about elliptic curves based on corresponding theorems proved about the model. In particular, the model suggests that all but finitely many elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank $\le 21$, which w...

Let $E$ be an elliptic curve over $\mathbb{Q}$ with discriminant $\Delta_E$. For primes $p$ of good reduction, let $N_p$ be the number of points modulo $p$ and write $N_p=p+1-a_p$. In 1965, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer formulated a conjecture which implies $$\lim_{x\to\infty}\frac{1}{\log x}\sum_{\substack{p\leq x\\ p\nmid \Delta_{E}}}\frac{a_p\log p}{p}=-r+\frac{1}{2},$$ where $r$ is the order of the zero of the $L$-function $L_{E}(s)$ of $E$ at $s=1$, which is predicted to be ...

The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture states that the rank of the Mordell-Weil group of an elliptic curve E equals the order of vanishing at the central point of the associated L-function L(s,E). Previous investigations have focused on bounding how far we must go above the central point to be assured of finding a zero, bounding the rank of a fixed curve or on bounding the average rank in a family. Mestre showed the first zero occurs by O(1/loglog(N_E)), where N_E is the co...

Unexpected oscillations in $a_p$ values in a family of elliptic curves were observed experimentally by He, Lee, Oliver, and Pozdnyakov. We propose a heuristic explanation for these oscillations based on the "explicit formula" from analytic number theory. A crucial ingredient in this heuristic is that the distribution of the zeros of the associated $L$-functions has a quasi-periodic structure. We present empirical results for a family of elliptic curves, a family of quadratic ...

In this article, we propose a new probabilistic model for the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves in families of fixed Selmer rank, and compare the predictions with previous results, and with the databases of curves over the rationals that we have at our disposal. In addition, we document a phenomenon we refer to as Selmer bias that seems to play an important role in the data and in our models.

We prove several results regarding some invariants of elliptic curves on average over the family of all elliptic curves inside a box of sides $A$ and $B$. As an example, let $E$ be an elliptic curve defined over $\mathbb{Q}$ and $p$ be a prime of good reduction for $E$. Let $e_{E}(p)$ be the exponent of the group of rational points of the reduction modulo $p$ of $E$ over the finite field $\mathbb{F}_p$. Let $\mathcal{C}$ be the family of elliptic curves $$E_{a,b}:~y^2=x^3+ax+...

Bhargava and Shankar prove that as E varies over all elliptic curves over Q, the average rank of the finitely generated abelian group E(Q) is bounded. This result follows from an exact formula for the average size of the 2-Selmer group, which in turn follows from an asymptotic formula for the number of binary quartic forms over Z with bounded invariants. We explain their proof, as well as other arithmetic applications.

The paper proves that the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is false.