Modularity, Higher-Order Recombination, and New Venture Success

Startups often represent newly established business models associated with disruptive innovation and high scalability. They are commonly regarded as powerful engines for economic and social development. Meanwhile, startups are heavily constrained by many factors such as limited financial funding and human resources. Therefore the chance for a startup to eventually succeed is as rare as ``spotting a unicorn in the wild''. Venture Capital (VC) strives to identify and invest in ...

Innovation, typically spurred by reusing, recombining, and synthesizing existing concepts, is expected to result in an exponential growth of the concept space over time. However, our statistical analysis of TechNet, which is a comprehensive technology semantic network encompassing over four million concepts derived from patent texts, reveals a linear rather than exponential expansion of the overall technological concept space. Moreover, there is a notable decline in the origi...

Thanks to the recent availability of comprehensive and detailed online databases of startup companies, it has become possible to more directly investigate startup ecosystems i.e. startup populations in specific regions. In this paper, we analyze the emergence of 20+ such ecosystems in Europe and the USA, with a specific focus on their sectoral diversity. Analyzing the sectoral landscapes of these ecosystems using a new visualization tool indeed highlights marked differences i...

Advanced economies exhibit a high degree of sophistication in the creation of various products. While critical to such sophistication, the nature and underlying structure of the interactions taking place inside production processes remain opaque when studying large systems such as industries or entire economies. Using partial information decomposition, we quantify the nature of these interactions, allowing us to infer how much innovation stems form specific input interactions...

We define a novel quantitative strategy inspired by the ecological notion of nestedness to single out the scale at which innovation complexity emerges from the aggregation of specialized building blocks. Our analysis not only suggests that the innovation space can be interpreted as a natural system in which advantageous capabilities are selected by evolutionary pressure, but also that the emerging structure of capabilities is not independent of the scale of observation at whi...

The availability of large idea repositories (e.g., the U.S. patent database) could significantly accelerate innovation and discovery by providing people with inspiration from solutions to analogous problems. However, finding useful analogies in these large, messy, real-world repositories remains a persistent challenge for either human or automated methods. Previous approaches include costly hand-created databases that have high relational structure (e.g., predicate calculus r...

In this review, we discuss modularity and hierarchy in biological systems. We review examples from protein structure, genetics, and biological networks of modular partitioning of the geometry of biological space. We review theories to explain modular organization of biology, with a focus on explaining how biology may spontaneously organize to a structured form. That is, we seek to explain how biology nucleated from among the many possibilities in chemistry. The emergence of m...

In order to create new products, inventors search and combine previous ideas. Few studies have examined the characteristics of search that lead to new products; most have focused on patent citations, which are often retrospective and may not reflect the usefulness of inventions. Through the analysis of collaborations in an online virtual community, the impact of originality on popularity and practicality is tested. These tests in turn are based on a method for measuring the...

Invention has been commonly conceptualized as a search over a space of combinatorial possibilities. Despite the existence of a rich literature, spanning a variety of disciplines, elaborating on the recombinant nature of invention, we lack a formal and quantitative characterization of the combinatorial process underpinning inventive activity. Here we utilize U.S. patent records dating from 1790 to 2010 to formally characterize the invention as a combinatorial process. To do th...

Building predictive models for companies often relies on inference using historical data of companies in the same industry sector. However, companies are similar across a variety of dimensions that should be leveraged in relevant prediction problems. This is particularly true for large, complex organizations which may not be well defined by a single industry and have no clear peers. To enable prediction using company information across a variety of dimensions, we create an em...