Physical modelling of global macrosystems evolution

The frameworks that explore scientific and technological evolution suggest that discoveries and inventions are intrinsic processes, while the wealth of knowledge accumulated over time enables researchers to make further advancements, echoing Newton's sentiment of "standing on the shoulders of giants." Despite the exponential growth in new scientific and technical knowledge, the consolidation-disruption (D) index suggests a concerning decline in the disruptiveness of papers an...

We show that world trade network datasets contain empirical evidence that the dynamics of innovation in the world economy follows indeed the concept of creative destruction, as proposed by J.A. Schumpeter more than half a century ago. National economies can be viewed as complex, evolving systems, driven by a stream of appearance and disappearance of goods and services. Products appear in bursts of creative cascades. We find that products systematically tend to co-appear, and ...

We define a novel quantitative strategy inspired by the ecological notion of nestedness to single out the scale at which innovation complexity emerges from the aggregation of specialized building blocks. Our analysis not only suggests that the innovation space can be interpreted as a natural system in which advantageous capabilities are selected by evolutionary pressure, but also that the emerging structure of capabilities is not independent of the scale of observation at whi...

Recent researches on complex systems highlighted the so-called super-linear growth phenomenon. As the system size $P$ measured as population in cities or active users in online communities increases, the total activities $X$ measured as GDP or number of new patents, crimes in cities generated by these people also increases but in a faster rate. This accelerating growth phenomenon can be well described by a super-linear power law $X \propto P^{\gamma}$($\gamma>1$). However, th...

Understanding systems level behaviour of many interacting agents is challenging in various ways, here we'll focus on the how the interaction between components can lead to hierarchical structures with different types of dynamics, or causations, at different levels. We use the Tangled Nature model to discuss the co-evolutionary aspects connecting the microscopic level of the individual to the macroscopic systems level. At the microscopic level the individual agent may undergo ...

We propose a combinatorial model of economic development. An economy develops by acquiring new capabilities allowing for the production of an ever greater variety of products of increasingly complex products. Taking into account that economies abandon the least complex products as they develop over time, we show that variety first increases and then decreases in the course of economic development. This is consistent with the empirical pattern known as 'the hump'. Our results ...

Innovation or the creation and diffusion of new material, social and cultural things in society has been widely studied in sociology and across the social sciences, with investigations sufficiently diverse and dispersed to make them unnavigable. This complexity results from innovation's importance for society, but also the fundamental paradox underlying innovation science: When innovation becomes predictable, it ceases to be an engine of novelty and change. Here we review inn...

We propose a general scenario to analyze social and economic changes in modern environments. We illustrate the ideas with a model that incorporating the main trends is simple enough to extract analytical results and, at the same time, sufficiently complex to display a rich dynamic behavior. Our study shows that there exists a macroscopic observable that is maximized in a regime where the system is critical, in the sense that the distribution of events follow power-laws. Compu...

Innovation is the driving force of human progress. Recent urn models reproduce well the dynamics through which the discovery of a novelty may trigger further ones, in an expanding space of opportunities, but neglect the effects of social interactions. Here we focus on the mechanisms of collective exploration and we propose a model in which many urns, representing different explorers, are coupled through the links of a social network and exploit opportunities coming from their...

Innovation is a key ingredient for the evolution of several systems, including social and biological ones. Focused investigations and lateral thinking may lead to innovation, as well as serendipity and other random discovery processes. Some individuals are talented at proposing innovation (say innovators), while others at deeply exploring proposed novelties, at getting further insights on a theory, or at developing products, services, and so on (say developers). This separati...