Can the Nexus of Scaling Laws Coupled with Constant or Variable Elasticity of Substitution Predict AI and Other Technology Adoption?

Despite dramatic growth and cost improvements in renewables, existing energy companies exhibit significant inertia in adapting to the evolving technological landscape. This study examines technology transition patterns by analyzing over 140,000 investments in power assets over more than two decades, focusing on how firms expand existing technology holdings and adopt new technologies. Building on our comprehensive micro-level dataset, we provide a number of quantitative metric...

Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historical data on 53 technologies. We derive a closed form expression approximating the distribution of forecast errors as a function of time. Based on hind-casting experiments we show that this wo...

The dynamics of adoption of innovations is an important subject in many fields and areas, like technological development, industrial processes, social behavior, fashion or marketing. The number of adopters of a new technology generally increases following a kind of logistic function. However, empirical data provide evidences that this behavior may be more complex, as many factors influence the decision to adopt an innovation. On the one hand, although some individuals are inc...

Rapid advancements in AI have sparked significant research into its impacts on productivity and labor, which can be profoundly positive or negative. Often overlooked in this debate is understanding of how AI technologies spread across and within economies. Equally ignored are developing economies facing substantial labor market impacts from rapid, and a loss in competitiveness, from slow AI diffusion. This paper reviews literature on technology diffusion and proposes a three-...

The adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) may significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by road transport. However, there is wide disagreement as to how soon battery electric vehicles will play a major role in overall transportation. Focusing on battery electric passenger cars, we here analyze BEV adoption across 17 individual countries, Europe, and the World, and consistently find exponential growth trends. Modeling-based estimates of future adoption given ...

This work demonstrates the application of a birth-death Markov process, inspired by radioactive decay, to capture the dynamics of innovation processes. Leveraging the Bass diffusion model, we derive a Gompertz-like function explaining the long-term innovation trends. The validity of our model is confirmed using citation data, Google trends, and a recurrent neural network, which also reveals short-term fluctuations. Further analysis through an automaton model suggests these fl...

Rapid technological advancements in AI as well as the growing deployment of intelligent technologies in new application domains are currently driving the competition between businesses, nations and regions. This race for technological supremacy creates a complex ecology of choices that may lead to negative consequences, in particular, when ethical and safety procedures are underestimated or even ignored. As a consequence, different actors are urging to consider both the norma...

Based on a recent model of paradigm shifts by Bornholdt et al., we studied mean-field opinion dynamics in an infinite population where an infinite number of ideas compete simultaneously with their values publicly known. We found that a highly innovative society is not characterized by heavy concentration in highly valued ideas: Rather, ideas are more broadly distributed in a more innovative society with faster progress, provided that the rate of adoption is constant, which su...

The goal of this paper is to develop a principled understanding of when it is beneficial to bundle technologies or services whose value is heavily dependent on the size of their user base, i.e., exhibits positive exernalities. Of interest is how the joint distribution, and in particular the correlation, of the values users assign to components of a bundle affect its odds of success. The results offer insight and guidelines for deciding when bundling new Internet technologies ...

We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic tasks that differ in their complexity. Advances in technology make ever more complex tasks amenable to automation. The effects on wages depend on a race between automation and capital a...