Can the Nexus of Scaling Laws Coupled with Constant or Variable Elasticity of Substitution Predict AI and Other Technology Adoption?

Although the brain has long been considered a potential inspiration for future computing, Moore's Law - the scaling property that has seen revolutions in technologies ranging from supercomputers to smart phones - has largely been driven by advances in materials science. As the ability to miniaturize transistors is coming to an end, there is increasing attention on new approaches to computation, including renewed enthusiasm around the potential of neural computation. This pape...

Training advanced AI models requires large investments in computational resources, or compute. Yet, as hardware innovation reduces the price of compute and algorithmic advances make its use more efficient, the cost of training an AI model to a given performance falls over time. To analyze this phenomenon, we introduce compute (investment) efficiency, which relates training compute investment to the resulting AI model performance. We then present a conceptual model of increase...

What will likely be the effect of the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) on the skill premium? To address this question, we develop a nested constant elasticity of substitution production function that distinguishes between industrial robots and AI. Industrial robots predominantly substitute for low-skill workers, whereas AI mainly helps to perform the tasks of high-skill workers. We show that AI reduces the skill premium as long as it is mor...

Despite pronouncements about the inevitable diffusion of artificial intelligence and autonomous technologies, in practice it is human behavior, not technology in a vacuum, that dictates how technology seeps into -- and changes -- societies. In order to better understand how human preferences shape technological adoption and the spread of AI-enabled autonomous technologies, we look at representative adult samples of US public opinion in 2018 and 2020 on the use of four types o...

The rapid expansion of AI adoption (e.g., using machine learning, deep learning, or large language models as research methods) and the increasing availability of big data have the potential to bring about the most significant transformation in entrepreneurship scholarship the field has ever witnessed. This article makes a pressing meta-contribution by highlighting a significant risk of unproductive knowledge exchanges in entrepreneurship research amid the AI revolution. It of...

In this paper, the adoption patterns of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools within software engineering are investigated. Influencing factors at the individual, technological, and societal levels are analyzed using a mixed-methods approach for an extensive comprehension of AI adoption. An initial structured interview was conducted with 100 software engineers, employing the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), the Diffusion of Innovations theory (DOI), and the Social C...

Technologies have often been observed to improve exponentially over time. In practice this often means identifying a constant known as the doubling time, describing the time period over which the technology roughly doubles in some measure of performance or of performance per dollar. Moore's law is, classically, the empirical observation that the number of electronic components that can be put on a chip doubles every 18 months to 2 years. Today it is frequently stated as the n...

Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) marks a pivotal moment in human history. It presents the opportunity for machines to learn, adapt, and perform tasks that have the potential to assist people, from everyday activities to their most creative and ambitious projects. It also has the potential to help businesses and organizations harness knowledge, increase productivity, innovate, transform, and power shared prosperity. This tremendous potential raises two fundament...

As firms' pricing strategies increasingly rely on algorithms, two concerns have received much attention: algorithmic tacit collusion and price discrimination. This paper investigates the interaction between these two issues through simulations. In each period, a new buyer arrives with independently and identically distributed willingness to pay (WTP), and each firm, observing private signals about WTP, adopts Q-learning algorithms to set prices. We document two novel mechanis...

Quantitative technology forecasting uses quantitative methods to understand and project technological changes. It is a broad field encompassing many different techniques and has been applied to a vast range of technologies. A widely used approach in this field is trend extrapolation. Based on the publications available to us, there has been little or no attempt made to systematically review the empirical evidence on quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. This study atte...