Understanding Phase Transitions via Mutual Information and MMSE

Nearly all statistical inference methods were developed for the regime where the number $N$ of data samples is much larger than the data dimension $p$. Inference protocols such as maximum likelihood (ML) or maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) are unreliable if $p=O(N)$, due to overfitting. This limitation has for many disciplines with increasingly high-dimensional data become a serious bottleneck. We recently showed that in Cox regression for time-to-event data the overfit...

Many real-world problems in machine learning, signal processing, and communications assume that an unknown vector $x$ is measured by a matrix A, resulting in a vector $y=Ax+z$, where $z$ denotes the noise; we call this a single measurement vector (SMV) problem. Sometimes, multiple dependent vectors $x^{(j)}, j\in \{1,...,J\}$, are measured at the same time, forming the so-called multi-measurement vector (MMV) problem. Both SMV and MMV are linear models (LM's), and the process...

An algorithmic limit of compressed sensing or related variable-selection problems is analytically evaluated when a design matrix is given by an overcomplete random matrix. The replica method from statistical mechanics is employed to derive the result. The analysis is conducted through evaluation of the entropy, an exponential rate of the number of combinations of variables giving a specific value of fit error to given data which is assumed to be generated from a linear proces...

We analyze phase transitions in the conditional entropy of a sequence caused by a change in the conditional variables. Such transitions happen, for example, when training to learn the parameters of a system, since the transition from the training phase to the data phase causes a discontinuous jump in the conditional entropy of the measured system response. For large-scale systems, we present a method of computing a bound on the mutual information obtained with one-shot traini...

As one of the central tasks in machine learning, regression finds lots of applications in different fields. An existing common practice for solving regression problems is the mean square error (MSE) minimization approach or its regularized variants which require prior knowledge about the models. Recently, Yi et al., proposed a mutual information based supervised learning framework where they introduced a label entropy regularization which does not require any prior knowledge....

In recent years important progress has been achieved towards proving the validity of the replica predictions for the (asymptotic) mutual information (or "free energy") in Bayesian inference problems. The proof techniques that have emerged appear to be quite general, despite they have been worked out on a case-by-case basis. Unfortunately, a common point between all these schemes is their relatively high level of technicality. We present a new proof scheme that is quite straig...

This paper develops an approach to inference in a linear regression model when the number of potential explanatory variables is larger than the sample size. The approach treats each regression coefficient in turn as the interest parameter, the remaining coefficients being nuisance parameters, and seeks an optimal interest-respecting transformation, inducing sparsity on the relevant blocks of the notional Fisher information matrix. The induced sparsity is exploited through a m...

This paper estimates free energy, average mutual information, and minimum mean square error (MMSE) of a linear model under two assumptions: (1) the source is generated by a Markov chain, (2) the source is generated via a hidden Markov model. Our estimates are based on the replica method in statistical physics. We show that under the posterior mean estimator, the linear model with Markov sources or hidden Markov sources is decoupled into single-input AWGN channels with state i...

The growth of machine learning as a field has been accelerating with increasing interest and publications across fields, including statistics, but predominantly in computer science. How can we parse this vast literature for developments that exemplify the necessary rigor? How many of these manuscripts incorporate foundational theory to allow for statistical inference? Which advances have the greatest potential for impact in practice? One could posit many answers to these quer...

Machine learning (ML) is playing an increasingly important role in scientific research. In conjunction with classical statistical approaches, ML-assisted analytical strategies have shown great promise in accelerating research findings. This has also opened up a whole new field of methodological research focusing on integrative approaches that leverage both ML and statistics to tackle data science challenges. One type of study that has quickly gained popularity employs ML to p...